NFL Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways (2024)
In the world of fantasy football, having an edge can mean the difference between championship glory and a disappointing season. One of the most useful but often underutilized metrics to analyze wide receivers is air yards. This metric provides deeper insight into a player’s potential by measuring the total distance a football travels in the air before it reaches the receiver, excluding yards after the catch (YAC).
Analyzing air yards for fantasy football purposes is a powerful tool for making better lineup decisions. If a wide receiver has a high number of air yards but underperforms in receptions and yards, it could indicate that their output will improve in the near future. On the other hand, if a player records a high number of receiving yards but low air yards, it may suggest their production is driven by volatile YAC numbers, which could regress.
Let’s dive into what air yards are, how they are analyzed, and what fantasy football takeaways you can extract for the 2024 season.
What Are Air Yards?
Definition and Importance of Air Yards
Air yards represent the total distance the ball travels in the air on a passing play. Unlike receiving yards, which account for both the catch and yards gained after the catch, air yards focus exclusively on the distance the ball covers before it is caught (or not). In short, they tell us how far down the field a player is being targeted.
In fantasy football, air yards offer a predictive value, particularly when analyzing future potential. A high number of air yards indicates a player is getting deep and valuable targets, which could translate into more fantasy points when things click.
Air Yards vs. Yards After the Catch (YAC)
Understanding the Difference
While air yards measure the distance a ball travels in the air before it reaches the receiver, yards after the catch (YAC) refers to the distance the receiver gains after securing the catch. Players with a high YAC often rely on athleticism, speed, and evasion to accumulate yards after catching shorter passes.
Volatility of YAC
Yards after the catch can be highly variable from game to game. A player might benefit from broken tackles or poor coverage, leading to a spike in YAC in one game but see a significant drop-off the next. Therefore, relying on YAC-heavy players in fantasy football can be risky. If a player racks up yards largely from YAC and not air yards, their production may not be sustainable.
Why Air Yards Matter for Fantasy Football
Predictive Power of Air Yards
Fantasy football is about identifying trends before they manifest. If a receiver sees significant air yards without the corresponding receiving yards, it’s possible they are on the verge of a breakout. A high number of air yards suggests a player is being targeted frequently and down the field, which tends to lead to increased fantasy production as volume often correlates with future success.
Conversely, a player racking up yards without significant air yards could be over-reliant on YAC, which tends to fluctuate more unpredictably. Knowing the difference allows you to make better lineup decisions and seek out waiver wire additions with upside.
Air Yards Analysis for the 2024 Season
Identifying Breakout Candidates
Entering the 2024 NFL season, analyzing air yards can help fantasy owners pinpoint which wide receivers are on the verge of a breakout. Players who are seeing high air yards but not yet posting big receiving stats are prime candidates for future success. Let’s examine a few potential breakout candidates for the upcoming season.
- Garrett Wilson (New York Jets)
Wilson was highly touted entering the league, and his air yards in 2023 showed that he was consistently being targeted deep downfield. However, with sporadic quarterback play, his receptions and yardage totals didn’t always reflect the volume of his air yards. With the Jets potentially improving their QB situation in 2024, Wilson is a strong candidate to capitalize on his air yards, making him a potential WR1 for fantasy owners. - Chris Olave (New Orleans Saints)
Olave, much like Wilson, was often targeted deep but didn’t always translate that into fantasy points in 2023. Air yards suggest he’s poised for a second-year leap, particularly if the Saints improve their offensive scheme. Keep an eye on Olave as a potential breakout star. - Jahan Dotson (Washington Commanders)
Dotson saw a fair share of deep targets but often fell short in receptions and receiving yards. If Washington’s passing game improves, expect Dotson’s air yards to translate into significant fantasy production.
Potential Busts Based on YAC-Heavy Production
Some players who thrived in 2023 did so with high YAC, rather than consistent air yards. While YAC can result in big plays, it’s less stable as a predictor of future performance. Players who relied heavily on YAC may see their production dip in 2024.
- Deebo Samuel (San Francisco 49ers)
Samuel is an explosive playmaker, but much of his production comes from yards after the catch. While he remains a valuable fantasy option, his reliance on YAC makes him a riskier pick compared to a receiver with consistent air yards. If defenses focus on limiting his YAC, Samuel’s production could decrease. - Christian McCaffrey (San Francisco 49ers)
While not a wide receiver, McCaffrey’s role as a receiving back often results in high YAC rather than air yards. While he’s an elite fantasy option overall, it’s worth noting that some of his receiving production could regress if YAC numbers decline.
Fantasy Football Takeaways for 2024
Draft Strategy Based on Air Yards
When drafting wide receivers in 2024, air yards should be a key consideration. Players with high air yards but lower receptions or receiving yards are prime candidates for improvement. Consider these tips when drafting:
- Target Players with Consistent Air Yards: Consistency in air yards indicates stable opportunities for big plays. Players like Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Tee Higgins are excellent targets as they’re frequently being looked at downfield.
- Monitor Quarterback Play: A receiver’s air yards are only valuable if their quarterback can deliver accurate passes. If a wide receiver’s air yards are high but their quarterback struggles with accuracy, the receiver’s ceiling may be lower than anticipated.
- Beware of YAC-Dependent Players: While players like Deebo Samuel are exciting to watch and can win you weeks with big plays, relying on YAC can be dangerous over a full season. Draft YAC-heavy players cautiously, as their production may fluctuate significantly.
Waiver Wire Strategy Based on Air Yards
Air yards are not only useful for drafting but also for in-season management. Monitoring air yards week to week can help you spot waiver wire gems before they break out. Look for players with high air yards but low catch totals in the early weeks, as they could be primed for a big game. Additionally, avoid chasing players who have unsustainable YAC numbers.
Air Yards and Matchups
Exploiting Weak Defenses
Defensive schemes play a significant role in air yards production. Some defenses are more prone to giving up deep passes, while others excel at preventing YAC. When setting your fantasy lineup, consider how the opposing defense matches up with your receivers. Players with high air yards facing a defense that struggles to cover deep threats are more likely to have a big week.
Adjusting for Game Script
Game script can also influence air yards. Teams playing from behind are more likely to take deep shots downfield, which can increase a receiver’s air yards. If you anticipate a team falling behind early, it may be wise to start wide receivers who benefit from increased air yards in these scenarios.
Conclusion
Air yards offer valuable insights for fantasy football owners, allowing them to predict potential breakout players and avoid risky picks. For the 2024 season, keep an eye on players who consistently see deep targets but haven’t yet produced big fantasy numbers, as they could be poised for a breakout. Likewise, be cautious with YAC-heavy players who might not sustain their production.
By analyzing air yards, fantasy owners can make smarter decisions when drafting, setting lineups, and managing the waiver wire. The 2024 season promises to be exciting, and staying ahead of the competition with metrics like air yards can give you the edge you need to dominate your league.
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